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Sports Betting Research

by admin on / Uncategorized

Now that you know where and how to bet to have the best advantages available, it is helpful to stay aware of the pertinent dynamic situations and circumstances that affect what will happen during the games in which you want to predict an outcome.

Some types of information you can research include injuries, line-ups, stats from previous games and narratives or storylines that may influence what the players are thinking about that day.

For Injuries, a good site to look at for any major sport is http://www.rotoworld.com .  There you can find the headlines of the day with the major injury news appearing on the front page or you can search a player’s name or click on a specific team for a deeper look at injuries that might not make the front page headlines.  Another thing that can help you stay aware of injury situations is twitter.  You can follow the news and injury twitter accounts for a sport or put them all in a “list” so you can just go to the list and see a stream comprised of only the tweets these accounts that you put in the list.

For lineups and personnel information, you can use these methods like going to injury sites and tweets but also you can look at daily fantasy research sites or websites that are specifically for posting expected and known lineups.  It is good to know this information in all sports but in some, like hockey and baseball, you’ll want to check sites like http://goaliepost.com/ and https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/daily_lineups.htm respectively.  If you don’t know who is pitching or playing goalie or who is in what line or what the lineup is, you won’t have a good idea of how the game is going to be played and what advantages or disadvantages players in the game may have based on personnel and opportunities.  This type of information is also available on twitter apart from where you would normally find injury information as well as from the same sources.

Whether you’re scraping websites for your projection model or just brushing up on exactly what different teams are doing well to add to your mental knowledge, it is helpful to go to sites where you can look at things that will help you determine what a team is good or bad at how they might match up with the strengths and/or weaknesses of their opponent.  This information can almost always be found on the leagues’ websites like nba.com or nfl.com but you can also get a more in-depth look at places like rotowire.com that are meant for fantasy sports but offer a highly informative look into what players should do what with what efficiency based on base stats and performances.  There are lots of stat sites and research tools out there fantasy websites and podcasts really help offer a great look into the intricacies of a game and opportunities within it.

The last thing I want to mention here is narratives.  I don’t have the numbers to back up this claim but it definitely seems to me and to many others that when a player has a major event in their lives, that they perform at an extremely high level the next game, relative to their average output.  Since most over/unders for player props and prices for daily fantasy are based on the players’ averages, it is good to know when they might exceed their average.  Some of these life events include but are not limited to birthdays, increased or focused social interactions stemming from going back to play a game where they went to college or where they grew up, the birth of a child, the death of a close friend or relative, or even something someone says in the media that affects the players’ mindsets temporarily.  You can find a lot of this information on twitter but also it is good to follow some forums like reddit.com/r/nba to know what the storylines of the day are.  There aren’t great sites right now, as far as i know, that specifically focus on this type of information but I think it can be very helpful when trying to predict which players might exceed their average performance outputs for the night.

All the research in the world won’t help you know everything and the sportsbooks and oddsmakers also have access to information that they can use to make and adjust the odds but it is difficult for them to keep up with everything because they have so many games to think about when a bettor might only have to think about 1 to 4 games or however many they want. There is a big difference between that and the hundreds or thousands of games per day that they are paying attention to to make and adjust their offerings.

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Where to Bet Sports

by admin on / Uncategorized

There are many examples of people getting scammed trying to risk money to play some fun games of chance.  Nowadays, anybody can start a website and make any kind of claim they want.  So if you don’t know where to play, it is easy to lose money with an institution that will cheat you or not pay you or even somewhere that does pay but doesn’t offer as many gaming options as the next place.  5dimes is an example of a reputable, paying website which offers much more than it’s competitors.

It is not just my opinion that 5dimes is one of the best sportsbooks and gambling websites in the world, but pretty much an objective fact.  Not only do they offer all of those options I presented in the “Sports Betting: How and Why” article, but they are a reputable site that pays out and is highly rated.  Lots of websites that are available to nearly all countries, don’t have extensive live betting or don’t have obscure sports like handball, esports, challenger tennis, International or NCAA soccer/football, etc.  5dimes does have these sports and many many others.  They have more than any other site i’ve seen that welcomes Americans, and i’ve used over 15 different online sportsbooks. They also offer a reduced juice option which means an option for better odds than you will find almost anywhere, meaning you don’t need to win as many bets there as you would in most books to be a winning player. More information about this program and others here: 5dimes reward programs.

Off-shore sports books can be as shady as they want to be because there aren’t many regulators to hold them accountable.  That is why it is important to choose a good one.  This site has been around for a long time and has live customer service 24 hours a day if there are any questions or issues.  It is easy to see why they are widely considered one of the best, if not the very best around.  I know I sound like a shill (and maybe I am) but there exist an abundant amount of reasons why 5dimes is considered one of the best online sports betting sites in the business and I feel extremely confident asserting that they are, for the reasons I name here and many more.

If you live outside of the united states, while 5dimes should still be near the top of your list of online sports betting sites, 2 other sites to look at closely are bet365 for their state-of-the art, constantly updating and wide-spread live-betting features and Pinnacle for for having early and good odds and high limits. Or better yet, you can lay or back bets at Matchbook or Betfair where you essentially can choose your own odds and play against another player instead of the house while giving a small fee to the company which facilitates the platform for such transactions.

If you want to play daily fantasy sports, the two industry leaders are Draftkings and Fanduel.  Draftkings is a little funner to me because they allow you to make use of multi-position players so you can get more creative with your line-ups or fantasy teams that you create.  This is a fun game to play but it is very hard to have an edge with this type of wagering.  It is considered a skill game so it operates in even less of a grey area than conventional sports betting, though there is skill involved in that as well.  Some good research sites and tools for DFS are rotoql, rotogrinders, and rotowire.

Also if you are somewhere that offers it, you can place wagers in the sportsbook section of Casinos or in walk-in betting shops.  The policies and laws do vary from state to state and country to country and though, to my knowledge, nobody in America gets arrested for gambling online; the issue of it’s legality is sort of a grey area up for debate and discussion.  It is however illegal for a regular person to be within the united states and acting as a bookie/sportsbook and you definitely can get in trouble for that so it is probably not wise to risk doing that.

If you are gambling and losing so much that it causes trouble in your being able to feed yourself or your family or pay your bills or to where a loss is severely or financially emotionally damaging or to an extent where you’re noticing heavy negative impacts from it in your life, you should reduce or stop gambling completely.  It is a fun, recreational activity but if it gets to that point, it is problem gambling and you can and should make efforts to fix the problem.  You can find resources for fixing that type of problem at http://www.gamblersanonymous.org/ga/ .

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Sports Betting: how and why

by admin on / Uncategorized

There are many ways one can use their knowledge of sports and ideas of what a player or team will do, to earn money.  You only need a good approximation of a pick’s percent chance to win and to cross reference that to the implied percent chance of the given odds for the pick, to do so.  If your aptly estimated percent chance is higher than that implied by the odds, any of the following bet types can be successful.

There are a lot more methods available than just betting on who will win or lose a game; you can also predict how much a team will win or lose by and whether it will be more or less than the number the odds-makers give you.  This is called the spread.  In a game, the odds-makers will give a number that the favorite has to win by to cover the spread.  Inversely, the underdog would win the bet by not losing by more than that amount.  So in a game of A vs B, if the spread is 7, and the final score is A wins 59-51, A has covered the spread. And a bet on A against the spread would be a winner.  A bet on B against the spread has lost if this is the final score.  If the final score was A wins 59-54, though A has won the game in real life, a bet on A against the spread (which was 7 in this case or A -7) has lost because they did not win by 7 or more points.  A bet on B against the spread has won, despite their losing the game because you had an additional 7 points.  So betting a team plus or minus the points is called betting against the spread and betting on a team to win the actually game with no point spread is called betting the moneyline.

You can also bet on the combined or individual teams’ scores from a game and whether they will go over or under a certain number.  These are called totals.  If they are for one specific team and not the other, then they are team totals.  So if the final score is 59-54, the final total is 113.  If they gave you a total of 105 and you bet on the over, you won.  If a team is good at offense or bad at defense, this should often raise the total.  If a team is bad at offense and/or good at defense, this should lower it.  If both teams are good at offense and bad at defense, these should raise it.  Though the teams’ abilities to score or prevent scoring are already factored into the total or number they give you to predict over or under, there are sometimes factors beyond what they have given you that you can apply or use to take a side in predicting what the score will look like at the end of the game.  The odds-makers have so many games and sports to attend to that there often are inefficiencies in some markets even beyond the fact that a lot of times totals, props and spreads are heavily influenced by teams’ averages.

A great way to bet on sports is called a prop bet.  This is where you make a wager on a specialized or focused outcome within the game.  Proposition bets can involve the whole team, both teams or just a single player.  You can bet on a team to make over or under a given number of field goals or for both teams combined to do so or for a specific player to score over or under a given number of points.  With prop bets, the upper limit on how much you can bet is often much lower than how much you can bet on a spread, total or game winner, likely because you can get a huge edge by knowing a little bit of information instead of a small edge by knowing a lot of information.  The number they give you for which you can bet over or under on a player prop bet is usually base on and very close to the player’s season average. If you know of some abnormality of either why the season average is so low or higher or why they should likely out-perform that season average that night, that is your advantage.  Often, when there are factors like this, the odds-makers will still leave the number close to the season average but just adjust the payout odds so the same thing applies for all wagers with determining what a good bet is.  This is comparing and contrasting your perceived true odds of an event occurring to the implied percent chance or given odds of the event occurring.

Another betting method that may interest some of the more patient people out there is called a future bet.  You can place a bet on who will win a league or a division and the earlier you make this bet before it becomes apparent that they will succeed at this, the more it will pay.  Sometimes outlandish odds are offered on some teams or players to entice action on them because there’s such a low chance of them actually accomplishing this goal, it’s almost like free money for them.  But if they give odds that imply that they have a 5% chance to win and you think they actually have a 15% chance to win, even though you expect them to lose and expect them to do so in this situation 85/100 times, it is still a good bet because your true or perceived odds are higher than the given odds.

One very interesting way to bet sports is via live bets.  These sometimes offer the best chance to hedge your bet.  You can, in a lot of places, bet on games that are already in progress with live and constantly updating odds.  If a team was suppose to, according to the spread, win by 10 points but now in the middle of the game are losing by 10 points, the new spread given during the game might be for that original 10-point favorite to win by 1 point or to not lose by more than 3 points or whatever else they want to offer.  So if you bet an underdog that is a 2 to 1 underdog  (a +200) but during the game, that underdog takes a bit of a lead and now the new live odds are the other team that they’re playing against +200, you can buy out of your original bet and guarantee a profit.  Some people advise against doing this too often because you’re going to lose one side of your bet in this and other scenarios so if you would’ve just bet on the winning side (though you don’t know which side that will be when you bet on it) then you get everything that wins without having to subtract whatever you bet on the other side.  If you are in the US, then most sites other than 5dimes will have very very limited live bet options but if you’re not then there are many sites available where you can bet this way.

In the same spirit as this hedging method, some people like to find sports betting arbitrage opportunities.  This is where you find different sports books offering different odds on the same event at the same time and use it to bet both ways on each, thereby guaranteeing a small profit no matter who wins.  It is often not truly a guarantee only because most online gambling establishments have rules preventing professional moves like this and they will either stop taking your action completely or limit your bet size.  Some of these books don’t even honor such a bet when they know they were offering odds that day that were different or softer than the rest of the industry.  If this was the only bet you placed at this book in months or ever, they have good reason to believe you are not a recreational bettor but a professional and can on occasion take this type of action.  If you feel you are treated unfairly or stolen from or this is not explicitly against the rules there, you can contact an online gambling watchdog site to help recover your money.  Even if you are successful at this, they will usually still keep you at a small limit or close your account.  Another way it is not a true guarantee is if the odds change in the time between you placing one bet on one site and placing the other on the other site.

A very risky and often ill-advised betting method that is, to a lot of people: the most fun, is called parlaying.  A parlay, or accumulator as it’s known in England and some other places, is when you bet on multiple events or games all within the same bets and they all have to win for your bet to win.  It is actually the same as just betting one game then putting all your winnings and original state on the second game, then putting everything you get back on the third game etc.  A smarter way to bet simultaneous games with the same original stake is to do a rolling IF-bet.  With these you can place your original bet on a game, then put another game behind it as a rolling if-bet.  That way instead of being forced to put everything on the second game as you would be in a 2-team parlay, you can put whatever portion of the first bet you want on the second game up to 100% which would be the exact same as doing a parlay.  Then in some sportsbooks, you can place a third rolling-if bet behind that second bet and so-on as many times as you want for whatever portion of the previous bet’s returns you want to risk each time.  The reason why a parlay is so difficult or ill-advised is that it is much more difficult for all the  events you select to go the way you predict than for each of them do do so individually.  Counter-intuitively, if you have 3 predictions that you accurately judge to have a 75% chance of occurring, the chances of them all going your way is far less than 75%.  The real odds of all 3 hitting is .75*.75*.75 or 0.422 (about 42%.) Technically it can still be a good bet if the parlay pays better than the odds of a bet with an implied odds of 42% but it is difficult to judge and far more difficult than just hitting some of your bets or more (instead of needing them all, all the time.) . One very cool and fun way to bet parlays is to bet an open parlay where you pick 1 or more games and how many empty spots you want then over time you fill in other games.  It is bad because the chances of all those picks or predictions winning is very slim but it is good because if by chance you can compound 100% of the winnings of each pick onto the next, the prospective or possible returns add up very fast.  The hard part is not having one or more loss and that is very hard.

One other fun and newish way people are betting sports is called daily fantasy sports or DFS.  This is not offered by traditional sports books most of the times and is usually found on their own individual DFS website.  This is basically where you make a fantasy team or a team of players from a given sport comprised of real life players on various teams.  Then your team that you created accrues points based on their performances within the game for just that day or weekend or whatever length of time the game covers.  This is difficult for the same reasons a parlay is, that when you’re forced to make so many predictions, it’s easy for 1 or more of them to go wrong.  But it’s also fun for the same reasons a parlay is, that you can make a lot of money from just a very small amount of money.  The information for who is starting that day for an injured player or who should be getting extra minutes or who has a favorable defensive match-up is so prevalent these days, that many people who you are playing against also know these things and it is difficult to make a team that is better than everyone elses’ without making a lot of teams that cover various possible scenarios.  But there are tools and methods to knowing which players will excel and it is an extremely fun game to play.  It is very difficult to gauge an edge in these games so it is difficult to know how much you should bet if at all, but you should always practice good bankroll management and caution in any gambling endeavor that you decide to take on.

It is better to stick to the bet types with which you don’t have merely a 2 or 3 or 5% low chance to win, even if the payout is higher than what it should be for those chances because you usually need to play the game a lot of times before some profit is realized and this could be very frustrating.  If you can find the balance of what is profitable and what is fun for you as an individual, you will likely have a much better time in the long run, playing these types of games.

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Maximizing Bankroll Growth

by admin on / Uncategorized

 

The Kelly Criterion: A strategy for bet sizing to win as much as possible while minimizing your chances of losing too fast or doing so continually.  A proven formula for compounding bankroll growth which was Created or discovered in the 1950s by John Kelly who worked at Bell Labs.  You can find a kelly calculator here or by searching on any search engine.

 

There is a formula for investing your money which takes into account the percent chance you perceive of an event to occur and compare it to the payout of what you would earn if that event does occur.  In cases where your perceived probability are greater than the implied probability of that payout, the Kelly Criterion tells you what percentage of your bankroll you should risk on this wager or investment based on how much greater your perceived percentage is above the implied percentage based on the odds.

For events where there are only a finite amount of outcomes like a coin flip (2) or the win/loss (2 outcomes when there is no tie possible) or win/loss/tie (3 outcomes) of a sporting event, the formula is X = (pb-q)/b with x being the percentage of your bankroll you should wager on the event, p being your perceived percent chance or true odds that you think the event has to occur, b being the net given odds of an event occurring expressed as the decimal odds of an event minus 1 or net odds, and q being 100% minus what the p perceived percentage of the event is.  So if you think a team has a 40% chance of winning and the odds are 2 to 1 (also can be expressed as +200 in the American moneyline style or 3.0 in the decimal style, the NET odds are 2.0 and the “true odds” or odds you perceive are 40%.   it is x = (((0.4*2)- (-1))/2  (pb-q)/b.   If you put that in a calculator, it spits out 0.1 or 10% of your bankroll.  So if you have 1,000 dollars, then you should bet $100 on this opportunity.

It tells you that the bet size for compounding your bankroll growth the best, taking safety and speed into account, is $100.  If you bet more than that percentage per this type of bet, you will eventually go broke.  If you bet less than this, you are leaving some money on the table.  Some people choose to bet half of whatever this number is.  A half Kelly betting method would still see growth, though it would do so slower.  The benefits of this are avoiding uncomfortable or unmanageable downward swings during a patch of bad luck, in the course of applying such a method long term.  But of course you would reduce your upswings during a stretch of good luck as well.

If you do this Kelly calculation, taking into account the true or perceived odds of an event actually occurring and the net payout odds of an event occurring, and your answer is 0 or negative, it is saying not to place a bet on that.  The bigger the edge or difference in your percentage vs the payout percentage, the more it will tell you to bet.  A problem can occur in something like sports betting for example, if the bettor is not good at estimating the approximate percent chance a team has to win or for a player or team to accomplish a certain feat during the game to win a prop bet.  The calculation can only be as good as the numbers you put in so if you think a team has an 80% chance to win, and put that in, the calculation will treat that as the true odds though depending on your ability to predict sports outcomes, it will vary how accurate or beneficial that is.

It is a good talent to be able to predict sports outcomes but even if you could not assign an approximate percentage to them in your head just from your sports knowledge, if you were good with programming or spreadsheets, you could make a model that factors in whatever stats and historical data you think will be-, or whatever stats and data were historically important in determining what happened in games and assigning some sort of numeric or quantifiable value to these factors that can help tell you when someone has an improved percent chance to win or even better, a specific approximate chance to win.  Odds makers and sports books use their own models and factors to develop the odds or line they give you but not only do those often not include all the factors a modeler would deem important but they also are often not even trying to predict the exact outcome of the game, but rather just encourage action or betting to go a certain way that would be profitable to them.

Because there is such a propensity for human error in any activity, one should always be cautious. And there often are unknown factors that you don’t or can’t account for like injuries or someone else cheating.  These are not just reasons to manage your bankroll carefully and patiently but also reasons to be very careful and to re-evaluate strategies for determining your edge regularly. Some people choose to use very conservative estimates when projecting an event’s percent chance of occurrence. Also some people choose to bet some fraction of the full kelly calculation’s recommended stake. If you bet half kelly or quarter kelly, the bankroll fluctuations will be much less severe.

 

 

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Probability

by admin on / Uncategorized

 

Probability is a word that most people have heard and that almost everybody has a general idea about regarding the definition of it.  However, not many people actually realize the true power of probability.  Even if you know the chances of a coin flip are 50/50 or 50% (because there are 2 evenly probable ways it can land (1 or the number of ways to win, divided by the number of possible outcomes in this case because the 2 possible outcomes have an even chance of occurring,)) you also are likely aware that if you flip a coin 10 times, it can and often does come out 9 heads and 1 tails or 3 heads and 7 tails etc.  The real interesting thing about the 50% probability of a fair coin flip is that if you flip the coin more often, the results will more closely resemble the 50% probability of the event occurring. So if you flip the coin 100 times, it’s more likely to be closer to 50 heads and 50 tails than 5 and 5 for 10 flips.  And with 1000 flips, it’s even more likely to be closer to 500 and 500 than the 50 and 50 or the 5 and 5.  This concept is called the Law of Large numbers.

So most of us would not intuitively think about this being the way the world works, or about how you can put an actual number on something that will tell you what will occur how many times because we think about all those times where it doesn’t or won’t occur.  We are not use to repeating the same exact thing 1,000 or more times.  We think about the chances on a surface or in a general sense but do not think much about how over enough time, these chances if measured correctly, always come into fruition.  With enough repetition, knowing the probability is a way of telling the future.  People who know how to compute the probability of various games and their payout structures, are able to use this ability of telling the future to make money from the game over time if they have a strategy that forces the game to pay out an amount over time that Is favorable to the player over time given the probability and odds of such an event occurring.

In 6 sided dice, it can come out 6 different even ways because there are 6 sides with even chances of landing up, so the odds or chances are 1/6. In a deck of cards, there are 52 cards so the chances or probability of getting any one specific card is 1/52 which can be read as 1 in 52 or 1/52 or divided as approximately 1/52 = 0.01923 (around 1.9%). There are 4 different suits (hearts, diamonds, spades, clubs) with 13 cards in each suit so the chances of drawing a card of a specific suit from a full deck are 1/4 or 0.25 or 25%.  If you Know you have a 25% chance of drawing a card of one type of suit and you find a game that requires you to guess the suit of a card being drawn from a full deck of cards (with no jokers,) 3 to 1 odds (you pay 10 dollar for a chance to win 30 plus your 10 back) is the point at which it’s a completely fair game.  Anything that pays more than that will be profitable over time if you size your bets in a way that allows you to continue betting a portion of your bankroll long enough for the 25% probability to come into fruition.  3.01 to 1, 3.10 to 1, 4 to 1: any of these would turn a profit if bet properly and enough times.  You could get lucky and turn a profit after 1 or 5 turns but over time, you would no longer need luck and you would just be paid from knowing the math behind how the game works and recognizing the payout structure as being favorable compared to these odds.

In games where the true odds can not be known like sports betting, you can sometimes estimate the likelihood of an event occurring and still find the same type of edge in a discrepancy between what it would pay if completely fair and what it pays below what you think the true chances of the event approximately are.  In cases like this where you’re estimating, it is best to leave some wiggle room or margin of error so that you are only placing wagers when your estimated percentage is far above what the fair payout percentage is in the implied percent chance of the payout odds.  To find out where you have this type of edge, you can learn the math, get a chart with the payouts and implied percentages or use one of the available calculators for such things online.

 

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Edge: Finding and Defining

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If you want to skip all this information about the intricacies of gambling advantages and edges and just want to try a game that has the built in player edge of giving you free realistic chances to win without any investment of your own, Predictpicks.com (You need an invite code for this; feel free to use mine: 011255) It is a very fun game where you just predict whether some athletes’ production for that night’s game will be more or less than the amount projected by the site.  If you get them all right then you win.  This is an automatic edge because with a chance of winning, and 0 chance of losing your own money, your chances of winning are infinitely greater than your chances of losing and thus in a very real way, you have the edge in this opportunity immediately and easily. If you do want to learn about this subject then read on:

I’m sure you’ve heard the saying “the house always wins” referring to gambling establishments and how the games are skewed unevenly towards their having the mathematical advantage, thus rendering them winners in the long term. Even if some chances or odds of some games are close to 50/50 (% chance to lose/ % chance to win) but just tilted a little bit so that it’s really in actuality 52/48 or 51/49, over enough iterations of the game being played, it will always eventually come out in favor of the party with the edge or advantage. So even if it seems like you win close to half the time, if you continue to play this game then you’re going to lose. Edge or expected value can be calculated and expressed by this formula: chance to win times amount that would be profited plus chance to lose times amount that would be profited (so if you would not win and just lose the amount you bet, it would be negative the amount bet) . The trick is trying to find where, how or when you can reduce this house edge (to have a better chance at getting lucky and profiting) or to better yet, play the game in a way or at a time when the edge is in your favor instead of the house.
In roulette there are 36 numbers (18 black, 18 red) and 1 or 2 green 0s. In this example, it will be a wheel with 2 0s. So if you put a $1 bet on black, the payout they offer if doubling your dollar profiting you $1. But to do this expected value or edge calculation to see if playing this game would win or lose you money over time it would be: (18/38 * 1) + (20/38 * -1) which equals -2/38 or -5.26% . Since it is negative (as we could’ve discerned by just seeing that there are more ways to lose this bet (20) than ways to win it (18) (because it pays out in a way that would be fair for a game where you had a 50% chance to win)) the house has this edge of 5.26%. So you can take the number of times played multiplied by the amount wagered each attempt and multiply it by the edge -5.26% or 0.0526. and after 10 rounds (10*1*0.0526) you can be expected to have lost $.53 . (rounded up from $.526) most of the time and after 1000 rounds of this bet size for this game you can be expected to have lost $53 from these $1 bets most of the time (though it will rarely if ever come out to these exact figures precisely.)  Or if desired, you can just take the implied probability(explained in the next paragraph) of this bet which doubles your money if won, which would be 50% and then calculate your chance to win which is 18/38 which is 47.37% and compare the two figures (50%-47.37% = 2.62 which represents your half of how unfair it is and then the other half is the casino enjoying that same difference but the other way . So if you multiply that 2.62 by 2, you get that expected value or edge calculated above of about 5.26%.) to learn that you are not playing a game that is fair to you and that the more you play, the more you are likely to lose.  Or you could use that to come to the conclusion that this game is closer to being fair than things like slots or kino in most cases and choose to have your fun there.

So given the inherent probability of the game based on how likely an event that would trigger a payout is to occur, based on all the influencing factors, if the payout is more than it should be based on this percentage of likelihood, then the player has the advantage. If the payout is less than it should be, the game is unfair and the house or opponent has the edge, and you will lose this game over time if you continue to play it. Here are some examples of sites where you can find the formulas or a calculator for figuring out the implied probability based on the odds that the oddsmaker or house pays out. For decimal odds it would be (1/ decimal odds) * 100 = implied probability. This number is basically the house or linesmakers’ saying what they think the chance to win is and if you know, learn or accurately estimate the chance of something happening to be higher than what the payout odds’ implied probability is, then this is an example of gaining the edge.

In games like sports betting, even with a good system or model, there are always numerous and unknowable factors and prevent one from knowing the exact true odds or probability of occurrence. So besides having a wealth of sports information that allows you have enough information to find the incorrect odds and exploit them by placing corresponding bets, an example of a way you could gain an edge in sports betting is called arbitrage or betting both sides of the same (usually 2-possible outcome) game at different sportsbooks which offer different odds to guarantee the win and a profit regardless of the game’s outcome. But beware that while there are software and tools to help you find these arbitrage opportunities, there are also hidden pitfalls and dangers including things like the book not honoring your bet because they say their offering very different odds from other books was a mistake or the book banning your account for non-recreational play if they notice a pattern of you only betting big with them when they have odds that are very different from their competitors. If you want to have a better chance at betting on a sport or in a nuanced way that you know or can be good at or that can be helped by information you know or can acquire, then perhaps it is best to play at a sports book like 5dimes which has more betting options than any other book available in the USA or other countries. And which has numerous advantages outlined in part here.

In casino games some ways to find or acquire your edge or reduce the casino’s edge include things like waiting for favorable opportunities to play bigger: like waiting until there are a disproportionate amount of face cards in the shoe or deck being dealt from in blackjack or watching for a pachinko machine to be abandoned by a player that lost a lot in that sitting, knowing the way the machines are programmed that it will soon balance back out and start winning in all likelihood. Other methods involve just knowing the rules and odds of the games and knowing what to do or what to play in given situations. But these things can only reduce the house’s edge by so much and unless you find a game that is unintentionally skewed in the player’s favor, these casino games should really usually only be played for fun or if you have a good compensation deal with free hotel stays, food and gambling money and things like that given to you for free in amounts comparable to or greater than what you will lose there.

In games of chance where you do know or find or calculate an edge in your favor, you still need to know how to size your bets according by the size of your edge and the best known way for doing this is called the kelly criterion which is addressed on the section of this website entitled Maximizing Bankroll Growth but which could’ve also been called avoiding ruin.

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